A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
