Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
